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Official crime statistics recorded by the city this year indicate that New York is on track to record fewer than 500 murders in 2007, the lowest number since reliable statistics began to be recorded in 1963. The trends recorded thus far this year, show that murders by strangers are also down dramatically.
So far, there have only been 428 murders recorded in 2007––412 killings and 16 people who succumbed to injuries sustained earlier. According to the New York Times, the number of murders committed by a stranger against a stranger––like in a mugging or random violence––could drop to as little as 100 for the year. That is a phenomenally small number in a city of 8.25 million people. The department has been on to the trend since the first quarter of 2007, when it noticed that murders were down during the first quarter.
Criminologists believe that the city will be hard pressed to continue to reduce the rate of murders from such a low point, because the vast majority of them are being committed by family members, friends, co-workers, and other familiar people. Cops would have to be omnipresent to prevent such crimes.
The figures above were taken from the final 2006 Crime & Justice Analysis for New York State report. One can see a pattern of decline that is a continuation of an even more serious drop in murders that began in the early 1990s. Those reductions began with the institution of policies under Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, who then served in the Dinkins administration.
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just think about how many PhD thesis will be written trying to explain this
Good news. Now maybe a cut in the NYPD payroll can be considered.
While I love to spread the "NYC is safe" gospel everywhere I go, which in Canada is hard for many people to swallow (Toronto is 1/3 the size but has 1/9 the homicides), I fear that if there is ever a major inquest into crime reporting, it may be discovered that violent crime is intentionally underreported by the NYPD :(
the reason people quote the murder rate so specifically is that it is hard to under report- a body is a body - and an a bullet is a bullet. Unlikely to be underreported, as easy checks and balances as all of the deaths have to be reported to the nyc medical examiner (separate database). Also, all actual homicides are managed by different offices cops and DA's than assaults and accidents, also making it easy to cross check and fraud unlikely
And let's not forget to thank Bernard Kerik for 60-70% of the drop of crime in NYC.
Thanks to Biden's Crime Bill from the early 90s....
Murder rate means little as far as actual overall safety is concerned. I actually really hate it when the media touts this number like its some kind of incredible barometer on crime.
Even at the worst of times in this town, years ago, murders topped out at what? like 2200 a year? Back in the late 80's? There were also 7.8 million people living in the city at that time, so the chances of you getting killed were slim to none.
The important metric to take into account is the overall violent and property crime rate, which includes robbery, burglary, rape, assault and battery..stuff like that. Back then, in the bad old days, they were clocking around 600 THOUSAND robberies a year. That brings the odds closer to 1 in 10 that you'll be subjected to something.
I'd like to know where those rates are now, because that's really the only useful measure of where the city is at with crime.