How Bloomberg Fits Into a Hillary-Rudy Race

For better or worse, thanks to Mayor Bloomberg's assertion of political independence, we'll be hearing about an all-New Yorker presidential race for months to come. Last week, a Quinnipiac poll found that New York State would go to Democratic front runner Senator Hillary Clinton, over former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Bloomberg. Clinton would get 43% of state votes, Giuliani would get 29% and Bloomberg would get 16%. If Bloomberg's not in the picture, Clinton still wins NY State, 52% to Giuliani's 37%.

And yesterday, a CNN poll reveals that Bloomberg would help shift votes to Clinton in national race between Clinton, Giuliani and Bloomberg. Without Bloomberg, Clinton and Giuliani gets 49% and 48% respectively; with Mayor Mike, Clinton gets 41%, Giuliani 28%, and Bloomberg 17%. Which seems surprising since we had suspected Bloomberg would take some Democratic votes. Then again, who knows, since a three-New Yorker race would probably be the nightmare of the country between the coasts.

The Observer's Steve Kornacki thinks that Bloomberg skeptics are doubting the Mayor's chances a little too much. And NY Sun's Ryan Sager notes that Fred Thompson has bought GoogleAds next to stories about McCain's drop in the polls (which appear next to Clinton ads). You've got to love technology.

Photograph of Clinton and Bloomberg during NYC's attempt get the 2012 Olympics - how time flies

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By Jen Chung in News on June 26, 2007 9:42 AM

Comments [rss]

dwightsupremacy

I can't concentrate on the article because droolworthy Olympic swimmer Ian "The Thorpedo" Thorpe is right smack in the middle. I think I'm voting for him! Now all I have to do is pull down my lever.

guest

Having watched the various talking heads last week and over the weekend I get the feeling that all of the political operatives (from both sides) are trying to dismiss Bloomberg because they are afraid of him. He might not win but everyone knows he would dramatically alter how they conduct their campaigns.

Which seems surprising since we had suspected Bloomberg would take some Democratic votes.

If Hillary's share goes from 49% to 41% then Bloomberg would take some Democratic votes. Isn't this simple math?

Tim N.

Bloomberg would take Democratic votes if the GOPer is someone other than Rudy. But if it's Rudy/Mike, then they would effectively cancel each other out... as they would be pulling from the same "I saved NY!" "No, I saved NY!" pool. Hillary would effectively rise above the fray.

See Election of 1912... Woodrow Wilson beats Republican William Howard Taft with assistance from independent Teddy Roosevelt.