Tale of Two Storms

Although the cool weather has ameliorated this week, temperatures are still running below normal. Tomorrow will see a bit of a setback in the warming department as a springtime nor'easter blows our way. Clouds, rain, and most importantly easterly winds will bring a chill to the day. Showers may begin by late this evening, but the steady rain isn't expected to be here until the early morning hours. Tomorrow morning's commute may be on the wet side as one or two inches of rain are expected between 4 a.m. and 2 p.m. Friday and Saturday will be much like yesterday –mostly sunny, highs 50-55. Friday is the first day of the year in which the normal high is 60 degrees.

If anyone knows what the weather will be like on Sunday or Monday please let us know! While the forecast for the next couple of days looks reliable, the situation brewing for the latter part of the weekend isn't very predictable.

The Weather Service and AccuWeather are thinking a springtime "perfect storm" scenario might play out. A low pressure system currently off the British Columbia coast is expected to move inland and dive south, ending up in the southern Rockies. As it moves into the southern Plains, it will likely kick off all sorts of severe weather. Avoid being in Arkansas on Friday if you can. If the storm moves as expected conditions will be right to produce a major storm off the mid-Atlantic coast. Given the timing of the storm near peak spring tides the Weather Service is worried that coastal flooding and beach erosion may be of an extent "not seen in many years."

Here's a little forecasting trick: pay attention to Sunday's high temperature forecast. If the forecast's warm expect a storm. To kick off the big storm, the original low pressure system has to move northward, roughly through the Ohio and St. Lawrence Valleys. Doing so will pump lots of warm air into our area, which is why the Weather Service is calling for a high of 57. If the storm takes a more southern route, Sunday will be cold and rainy instead. The Weather Channel apparently thinks the latter scenario will play out as they are predicting a high Sunday of only 43.

Late-weekend storm threat map from AccuWeather.com.