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For all you Census-population counting nerds, check out the NY Sun story about the city's challenge to the U.S. Census. Some new Census information says that the population of NYC "grew by a total of 587 people between 2005 and 2006," which the city thinks is a ridiculous understatement. What's the big deal? Well, money, of course, since funding comes on a per capita basis.
For the past few years, the Census has been saying that the city's population has been going down and the city has argued that the Census is just wrong, especially given the number of housing permits it has been issuing each year. But what's interesting is how Census methodology may not be totally apt for NYCm hence revising estimates:
In developing its estimates, the Census Bureau tracks births and deaths, along with migration, which can be difficult to measure, demographic experts say. Because New York has a higher proportion of immigrants and young, transient individuals than many parts of the country, a different estimation method is appropriate, a Cornell professor who works with the city on its estimates, Warren Brown, said.However, a Census Bureau demographer warns, "It's hard to say, given the options of an absolute truth, which method is better." And we have to wonder even thought there is a lot of new housing being developed, there's a growing lack of affordable housing - so it would be realistic to expect some migration."For certain counties of population, their standard procedure does not work well," Mr. Brown said of the Census Bureau. "Based on the indicators and the data that we have, we expect that the numbers will be revised substantially."
The revised figures are based on data of new residential units. The city has seen a substantial increase in residential building permits issued most every year since 2000. The Census accepts this as an alternative methodology, and barring incomplete data, revises its estimates to match the housing data.
Here's city's census fact finder, based on info from 2000.
Photograph by akbarsyah on Flickr
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The City has missed so many opportunities to have fun with and publicize the population numbers. When it hit 8 million, they should have sent those story trucks around, trying to collect the 8 million stories in the naked city. Now, they should start a hunt for the 587 people.
How many of the new condominiums are being purchased by people that are not moving their permanent residency to city? I bet plenty of people bought second (third, fourth) homes. I would also bet that some of the high end condos are being purchased by foreigners using the weak dollar to their advantage. I would further bet that plenty of companies are buying condos for their execs to use when they are in town. Then of course there are retirees that keep their old homes and winter in Florida. Spend enough days in Florida and it becomes your new permanent residence and. . . wait for it. . . there's no state income tax! Finally, illegal aliens are hard to count. Hell, I have friends that are natural born Americans that won't fill out the census forms.
Also, I just received and send back the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. They do make an effort to collect data mid-census.
why dont they just advertise free burrito day at chipotle then just count the lines?
nick, that will get an accurate count of the yuppies looking for free range, hormone-free chicken in their burritos. Not sure it will count the Mexicans.
great photo!
yeah most of those building permits are for singles or empty nesters i'd imagine. not a family of 10.
Lol, That's funny . The city's population in decline? I think not , If anything it's on the raise. The census doesn't take into account the vast number of people living in vacate building .