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Through much of its history New York had a working waterfront. Be it for passengers, cargo, fishing, or ship building, warehouses and other industries, the waterfront was a busy, stinky, messy place. As a result the poshest residences were usually built inland, think Park Avenue. Since the ports are no longer used for industrial purposes there has been a rush to build along the shore. As discussed in a long article in Sunday's Times, maybe riverside condos aren't such a great idea.
The problem? Global warming is driving up sea level. Five inches higher by 2030 and another couple inches by 2050. While that doesn't sound like much, a slightly higher sea level lets water from a storm surge travel much further inland. Couple sea level rise with a likely increase in the frequency and strength of storms, both tropical and nor'easters, and you greatly increase the risk of an infrastructure disaster. Allstate is already refusing to renew policies in metro New York because of storm vulnerability.
Did you ever wonder why the West Village has low buildings? Why does the Manhattan skyline take a dip between the Financial District and Midtown? The answer is sand and bedrock. Early skyscrapers needed to be built on bedrock close to the surface. Sand underlies much of downtown above the Financial District. If a storm surge pushes through the West Village it is going to scour the sand that supports lots of unreinforced buildings, causing them to collapse or otherwise be unusable. It's not just the West Village, Red Hook is mostly fill, Coney Island and the Rockaways are nothing more than semi-permanent barrier islands, all the islands within Jamaica Bay are only a couple feet above sea level, as are JFK and LaGuardia airports. Shown in the map above, is the storm surge estimated for a category 3 hurricane, roughly the size of Hurricane Katrina. All the places in blue would be overrun with water.
Shiny new glass buildings are also a problem. Under the current building code, windows have to withstand wind gusts up to 110 miles an hour. That's fine for a minor hurricane, but it offers little protection in a major storm.
To deal with these problems the mayor has set up PLANYC, the Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability.
The options for holding back the sea are not pretty. A seawall would have to be dozens of feet high. A wall that high needs to be really wide. Good-bye river views and access!
A set of storm surge barriers, moveable, underwater locks that would be put into use ahead of an approaching storm will offer partial protection. According to SUNY-Stony Brook researchers there would have to be four barriers: under the Verrazano Bridge, between Staten Island and New Jersey, between Long Island Sound and the East River, and across the Rockaway Inlet. Barriers like this are expensive, $10 billion each, but that is a small investment if it protects trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure.
Other ideas PLANYC2030 are considering include requiring buildings to be retrofitted, and more appropriate land-use planning, including buffers to absorb the impact of storm surges. A draft revised building code is to be released this spring. Expected changes include requiring stronger windows and strengthening of critical buildings, such as hospitals, in flood zones.
Storm surge map from NASA and based on the work of the NYC DEP, SUNY Stony Brook, and FEMA.
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I live in a basement in a blue section... here's to hoping I get a big fat raise before we get hit by a hurricane.
This isn't really shocking. NYC basically exists one natural disaster away from devastation. One solid earthquake, tidal wave, hurricane, or tornado would probably kill an enormous number of people and destroy the city.
Much like a nuke attack. You pretty much have to go through your day ensured it's never going to happen.
Do these yuppie palaces have their own flood insurance or is the taxpayer going to be on the hook when a hurricane surge wrecks the first three floors and one or two subbasements of the waterfront buildings?
Ooh, underwater locks - I LOVE the idea. But $40 billion for all four? I don't think that's happening any time soon.
uncle sam doesn't care about yuppies
Another reason (besides the low rent & the space) to be glad about living in the Heights...
Anya, I was thinking the same thing.
I just watched "An Inconvenient Truth" last night on Showtime. If you put aside hurricanes for a moment (although their existence is exacerbated by climate change), you can worry about the polar ice melting instead. If the icecaps continue to melt, the sea levels will rise by 40-80 feet in the next 50 years and will inundate NYC that way instead.
uncle sam doesn't care about yuppies
I guess it was all poor people that lived on the Carolina coast and had their homes rebuild at government expense?
The red and yellow areas are almost invisible on the map. Am I missing something here? The post's author says "The Problem" is that global warming is driving up sea levels, but according to the projections as illustrated on this map, the additional flooding caused by rising sea levels will be inconsequential.
#10 Said:
"the additional flooding caused by rising sea levels will be inconsequential."
Exactly! Isn't that an "inconvenient truth" for the fear mongers.
BTW. Count me in as another New Yorker who's glad he lives in the Heights.
Queens Crap today also has a cool animated map showing a storm surge.
I always wondered why my insurer would either refuse, Or give me a policy with "Restrictions" . Fortunately, Where me house is located the land is about [17-18"] above the area of JFK . May not seem like much but then it counts I'll be safer then a lot of people in say, Baisley, Bellerose, etc .
Good catch, brad stone! That paragraph isn't as clear as it should be.
jmchez: as I said above, the real danger isn't from a possible hurricane, but from the icecaps melting - which IS happening. You obviously haven't seen the film, or else you wouldn't be so cavalier about that possibility.
This is another great example of spin.
The BLUE areas are CURRENT inundation areas.
The little bitty red and yellow areas are additional areas that will get flooded in a surge if (a big if) sea levels rise.
Sorry, but this is a non-story!
Search YouTube for "The Great Global Warming Swindle" for a real eye opener...
When the dust finally clears after the GW debacle, I won't be surprised if no one takes the environmental movement seriously anymore...
Many citizens of earth do not realize the seriousness of the parlous state of
the global environment, but will just prior to their obliteration by 'a raging
mother nature'. Judging by the current extremes of global weather conditions and
the recent increase in worldwide seismic activity, I believe humanity will face
extinction before the end of 2008.
In the past ten years there has been an exponential melting of the ice sheets
and a noticeable disintergration of the ice shelves, owing to 'global warming'.
The loss of mass from the underlying Tectonics Plates causes them to ascend
(iso-static rebound), and this results in an increase in the intensification and
frequency of global seismological activity ... the seismic data of the past tens
years confirms this conjecture. Furthermore, the ice shelves impede the flow of
glaciers and ice sheets into to the oceans; and when the 'polar regions' are
subjected to unprecedented seismic upheavals, these events will then cause the
ice sheets and glaciers to be dislodged enmasse into the oceans. This occurrence
will then instantly destabilze the earth's surface weight distribution, and so
precipitate a 'crust displacement' (Mag. 12). i.e., axis change! The previous
subterranean extraction of fossil fuels will greatly exacerbate this impending
Apocalypse.
Currently. the excessive amount of carbon and methane gasses in the atmosphere
is causing catastrophic weather conditions, globally ... and this situation will
rapidly deteriorate... ' a climate runaway!'
The global environmental and geo-political situations are coalescing into a
'critical mass'; so I believe humanity can expect a catastrophe of worldwide
proportions within this year!
In 1998, I submitted my dissertation on the above matter to various eminent
institutions and individuals, to which I received positive responses from PM's
Tony Blair, Helen Clark (NZ) & Lee Kwain Yew (Singapore) as well as the UN's -
Dr Mary Robinson, Hon. Justice Michael Kirby AC CMG of the High Court of
Australia, Premier P. Beattie (Queensland, Au) and Chief Justices of Canada,
Norway, Taiwan, Mexico and Netherlands etc,.
Reality rules this universe! ... not unproductive discussion & debate?
John Berbatis
4/21 Cornelian ST
Scarborough 6019
Perth Australia Tel: +61 0422621382 21st March, 2007
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From : thepremier
Sent : Tuesday, 13 March 2007 2:00:16 PM
To :
Subject : AA07/06566 - Global warming
| | | Inbox
AA07/06566 - GHO
Dear Mr Berbatis
The Premier has received your recent email concerning global warming.
Your views have been noted and Mr Iemma appreciates the reasons which
prompted you to write to him on this occasion.
You may be sure that your comments will receive close consideration.
Yours sincerely
Jocelyn Mouawad
Assistant Private Secretary