Deception in the Forecast

surface weather map Another warm day is underway today. How warm? This morning's low temperature in Central Park was 57 degrees, one degree less than the normal high temperature for November 1st. The warm weather of the past couple of days wasn't enough to bring October's average temperature above normal. The month finished 0.4 degrees cooler than normal and had 50% more rain than an average October.

Tomorrow's high temperature is forecast to be in the mid-50s. That's a very deceptive forecast if you take it at face value. Yes, the high temperature will be around 55, but the peak will occur soon after midnight tonight. After its midnight peak, which is likely to be accompanied by rain, tomorrow's temperature will hold steady, or even fall, for the rest of the day as cold air filters in behind a cold front. Any rain or clouds should clear up by mid-morning. Friday and the weekend will be 20 degrees colder than today.

Twenty degrees colder is still not cold enough for ice storms, today's topic on Winter Weather Awareness Week. Gothamist has to say, our local Weather Service office doesn't appear to be too into ice storms. Today's entry is rather weak. The Albany office has a more thorough discussion. The take-away points are freezing rain, which occurs when rain freezes upon contact with a frozen surface, can make walking, cycling and driving extremely hazardous, even when the rain falls in small amounts. Large accumulations of freezing rain can bring down trees and utility poles. Ice is heavy!

Tomorrow's topic: Winter floods.

Surface weather map from the National Weather Service.

Contact the author of this article or email tips@gothamist.com with further questions, comments or tips.

By Joe Schumacher in News on November 1, 2006 1:32 PM

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Peter

I've been going through training for Suffolk County's Citizens Emergency Response Team, which is basically a group of trained volunteers who would assist emergency services in the case of a mass disaster or other major crisis. One of the things we've learned in that the most serious type of natural disaster that can hit this part of the country is a major ice storm. A hurricane can cause localized destruction but would not compare to a big ice storm when it comes to the sheer number of people whose lives are disrupted and the overall economic damage. There was a huge ice storm in parts of Canada in the late 1990's, in fact it may have affected some of upstate New York, and for all intents and purposes it shut down modern civilized life for a couple of weeks. Roads were impassable and there was no electricity and telephone service in the affected areas. People basically were on their own to survive any way they could.