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The Daily News' Ben Smith looks at a possible stumbling block for Rudy Giuliani's presidential hopes. And it would be a big one. With September 11 fire responders falling ill and memos about the Giuliani administration opening downtown earlier, in spite of EPA warnings, becoming a bigger and bigger story this year, some who hope for "Giuliani 2008" are concerned that Rudy could be vulnerable, the way John Kerry was when the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth emerged in the last presidential election. Smith writes:
Many of the workers who spent time near Ground Zero, including at least one of his top aides, have come down with respiratory and other illnesses doctors link to the air quality following the attacks. Giuliani and former Environmental Protection Agency chief Christie Whitman have traded blame over the fact that more workers didn't wear respirators. But it was Giuliani's old rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, who helped organize research into the health impact of the towers' collapse.Yowch! Still, there's some suspicion about why these allegations are coming now, as Giuliani is presumably thinking about 2008. At any rate, we're not totally convinced Rudy would win the Republican nomination in 2008, but if the options are Pataki or Giuliani, then he's a shoo-in.There's no "9/11 Families for Truth," no organized effort to damage Giuliani's national reputation. But the seeds of it may be sprouting. Sally Regenhard, whose firefighter son, Christian, died on 9/11, told the Daily News' Errol Louis that she intends to "swift boat" Giuliani.
"There's a large and growing number of both FDNY families, FDNY members, former and current, and civilian family members who want to expose the true failures of the Giuliani administration when it comes to 9/11," said Regenhard, who, citing a recent book by Wayne Barrett and Dan Collins, blames Giuliani for 9/11 communications breakdowns. The city's police and fire union presidents are also openly hostile to Giuliani, and agreed on New York 1 News recently that he shouldn't be called "America's Mayor."
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This country is in serious trouble if "Do Nothing" Pataki becomes our next president. I realize that's only peripheral to the story, but still... the thought of it is horrible.
"At any rate, we're not totally convinced Rudy would win the Republican nomination in 2008, but if the options are Pataki or Giuliani, then he's a shoo-in."
Pataki or Giuliani?
You do realize there are politicians, including Republican politicians, that live outside of New York, right?
Yeah - but I can't begin to guess who is jockeying for the nomination. Who do you think it may be? Anyway, that's why I limited it to the NY possibilities.
No way Pataki is the candidate. He doesn't have the charisma or the right wing cred to win the primaries. The GOP candidate is going to one or the other. If anything, Pataki's third term probably did him in. There is a finite window to accomplish things in politics and if you're lucky enough to win a third term you're almost certainly a lame duck from Day 1.
I think John McCain emerges victorious from the primaries. Rove is the main reason McCain didn't win in 2000.
IMHO, there's McCain and the 9/11 Whore for the Republicans in '08, everyone else is just a pretender, or in the case of our beloved governor, simply self-delusional.
Sadly, I would give St. Rudy the advantage because, like our current president, is a nasty, strident, no-holds-barred campaigner, while McCain has always shown just a little bit of reluctance to get his hands dirty. On the other hand Rudy is such an out-and-out, self-aggrandizing phony that such a "Swift Boating" might prove effective.
Giuliani's other problem, and it may be a bigger one, is the people he hired in his administration. So far, two that I know of have pleaded guilty to corruption or misuse of public funds - Kerik and Harding. Harding's misuse of agency dollars may have included paying the way for his boyfriend (at least, that's what was implied), and he faces or faced child porn charges. Then there's the aide killed recently after picking up a gay street hustler.
These are not the sort of appointments that middle America could embrace, nor, after Michael Brown, does the public have any appetite for a chief executive whose appointments are based on cronyism and loyalty instead of competence.
"Swift Boating" to me is synonymous with lying and distortion. No need for that. Just focus on the meanness of the Guiliani regime (with lots of NYkers saying "he was an OK mayor, but no way would I vote for him as president") and you can beat him.
You could blame Giuliani for hiring people that stole public money although we have no way of knowing what skeletons were in their closets prior to their hiring or how extensive the background checks were. Obviously, Bush's people should have checked out Kerik more thoroughly.
I don't think middle America is going to believe Giuliani knowingly hired a guy into kiddie porn. As for gays, I know it is going to be hard for some of you to accept but most people in the Red States don't give a damn about homosexuality one way or the other. If polled they may say they are against gay marriage but then some Democrats must be too if the nationwide numbers are to be believed. The very loud 5 or 10% that scream about homosexuality being a sin against God don't speak for everyone. Most people would rather everyone just kept their sex lives to themselves. The more the left blog crowd paints the Red States with one broad brush stroke the less chance they have of swinging the vote in their favor. Ironic.
And if you think cronyism starts and ends with Republicans you should probably go find a hole and stick your head in it. If New Jersey Democratic politics doesn't make you sick then just wait until 2009 when the Democrats just might control the White House and congress. And if you can't wait that long, Spitzers people are already making offers to their friends.
It would be interesting to see how the Democrats who cried foul over the Swift Boat Vets treat something like this. Since there is no memory in politics, and what is good for the goose is, well you know, its likely that despite their protestations, lots of money would flow to a similar anti-Rudy group.
in contrast to the "swift boaters" this sounds like it has some basis in reality.
Rudy G is a legitimate candidate and will get a lot of attention, but remember, the most likely candidate is not just who is most appealing on a national level, but who can survive the primary contests. Giuliani will get slaughtered on things like abortion and gay marriage in the southern GOP primaries where zealotry on moral issues is more important than anything else. McCain is also not the most conservative candidate on moral majority issues, but his record is at least more acceptable for those states. IMHO RG is much more likely as a running mate.
Pataki is pretty much a non-possibility and I don't think he's been mentioned frequently as a contender. Just thought it was oddly NY-centric to even bring him into the discussion.
Giuliani will be president if he wants to be. Maybe we need a former prosecutor in the white house. The fire fighters and clean up crew would have gotten sick regardless of the timing to allow business to run again.
I like the way he made revenue flow through New York before 911. He and Bill Clinton made a very good team.
He is a smart man. If he has the right intentions as president, I am all for him holding office. What might have set him back was the way he remarried. I didn't like that.
Rudy has been selling his soul to the devil Republican party. I think that the most likely senario is that Christie Todd Whitman will be blamed, since she is a good little Republican she will take one for the team for the greater bad
As for George Elmer's chances - they are about as likely as Manchester United winning the World Series.
Let's try to keep the terms straight. "Swift Boating", whether you believe the Swift Boaters were lying or not, is meant to imply that the political operatives are just making shit up. More detail:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiftboating
"Swiftboating" is not simply criticism or negative ads, or a "significantly bad event" for a politician.
AFAIK, there reports about Giuliani's actions are pretty accurate and, in fact, many people are getting sick.
Joe,
I don't think that you can presume those issue and how the American public will vote.
For all you know, in 2008, the moral fiber in America may be ripe for "clean up the barn and taking out the trash."
Abortion, gay marriage. Those issues have not been high on the majority of American's political agenda for some time.
Remember he was a prosecutor. He knows how to make himself look like "your guy." The guy who has everyones best interests at heart. Lawyer finesse.
I wouldn't under estimate Mr. Guliani for one minute. He is middle America and he is an Italian American. He has roots that will work in his favor, especially with the immigration. The south is not a problem because that is where America's tradition remains. The south is very practical and conservative. He doesn't have to speak on morals, because he can get the Pope to do that.
Note the difference:
Swift boat testimonials = false
9/11 E.P.A. cover-up = fact
There is no way Giuliani or Pataki is getting a nomination for jack from the national GOP. They are too liberal, too northeastern, and...their last names are too ethnic. I'm serious.
I also think that the northeastern thing will hurt Hillary Clinton as well.
Mark my words, NYC's standing as a power in national electoral politics (ie, producing viable national candidates) is *over*. Not saying that is good or bad, but I really think that is the way it is.
The Swift Boat vets weren't lying. That's why Kerry couldn't respond to them without making himself look even worse.
"I don't think that you can presume those issue and how the American public will vote.
For all you know, in 2008, the moral fiber in America may be ripe for "clean up the barn and taking out the trash."
Abortion, gay marriage. Those issues have not been high on the majority of American's political agenda for some time"
No, they aren't high on the majority of Americans' political agenda. The majority of americans do not get to vote in Southern and upper midwestern primaries.
These ARE the issues that are extraordinarily important in moral majority states. They are crucial. Even in local races it turns into a pissing contest about who is more against abortion. And the catholic angle is not going to help him one bit -- they hate the pope down there, too. Trust me, I lived in Tennessee at one point.
Simply put -- Giuliani is going to get thrashed on these issues in the southeastern and prairie state primaries -- where, by the way, Bush is still fairly popular and there is really no sentiment towards "taking out the trash." If you get thrashed in those states, you aren't going to win the GOP nomination. Doesn't matter how pragmatic or charismatic he is. If a Bill Frist manages to float the idea that Rudy doesn't hate gays enough or isn't strongly against abortion, he will not win the nomination, period.
Let's not forget that Giuliani put his girlfriend, Christyne Lategano, on the public payroll and then lied about it when challenged.
Let's think for a moment... about the sweetheart deal for two-way radios that Rudy gave out. The Police & Firefighters/EMTs could not talk to one another! Plenty of brave first responders died on 9-11 because they could not hear what was being told to them. Their blood is on Rudy's hands.
SomeJoe: "The Swift Boat vets weren't lying." What flavor WAS that KoolAid that you drank? The #1 "eyewitness" quoted in the book wasn't even in VietNam when he claims that he was. Next, you'll be saying that the pantload-in-the-flightsuit didn't go AWOL!