Gothamist: NYC Will Test Hurricane Plans

SvrWxGeek

Sat, 27 May 2006 19:46:23 -0500

> We are all going to die! Hurricanes are actually caused by the >Bush family. Yes, we ARE all going to die. Eventually. ...and hurricanes are caused by tropical disturnbances that grow via a feedback process similar to a Carnot heat engine. Bush's contribution to global warming apparently increases their intensity, but not their frequency (see Emanuel 2005).

bklynd

Sat, 27 May 2006 12:41:46 -0500

Ah, the return of rob, aka "Mr. Science."

rob

Sat, 27 May 2006 10:50:26 -0500

Believe Al Gore: We are all going to die! Hurricanes are actually caused by the Bush family.

SvrWxGeek

Fri, 26 May 2006 22:55:08 -0500

There is no such thing as "overdue" for a hurricane (or a tornado, or a blizzard, etc..). Just because NYC might get a bad hurricane, say, every 100 years, doesn't mean the probability increases if its been, say 150 years versus 10 years. Of course this misleading pseudoscience was propagated by the infamous Accuweather, well known for hype over reality. One might be somewhat correct to say a location is "overdue" for an earthquake just because we know that stress builds up over time...however, prediction based on such a simple concept is not very reliable.

bkylnd

Fri, 26 May 2006 16:15:38 -0500

Here's a question - statistically, how can you be "overdue" for anything? You flip a coin - heads, heads, heads. On the next flip, the odds of tails are still only 50%, right? Your luck to date doesn't change the odds.

huh?

Fri, 26 May 2006 16:00:50 -0500

what's a hurrivane? Is it like a weathervane?