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New York's Black Population On The Decline?

We really love it when people get down and dirty with massive amounts of numbers. A good round of number crunching, rather than a lazy one, can turn up interesting trends that might have otherwise been overlooked.

2006_04_03_timesquote.jpgTake for example this article in today's Times. Even though the population of Gotham and its suburbs has been on the rise lately, that growth has apparently not come from our black population. On the contrary, New York City "had 30,000 fewer black residents in 2004 than in 2000" (unlike, say, when the city's black population grew by 115,000 in the 1990's). And though white New Yorkers are still the most likely group to leave the city, black New Yorkers are far more inclined to leave the New York region all together (7 in 10 black people who leave New York, leave New York - see this Times graphic). "This suggests that the black movement out of New York City is much more of an evacuation than the movement for whites."

The implications for a city of 8.2 million people could be profound. If the trend continues, not only will the black share of New York's population, which dipped below 25 percent in 2000, continue to decline, particularly if the overall population grows, but a higher proportion of black New Yorkers will be foreign-born or the children of immigrants.

Two other facts stuck out to us in the Times article: 1) New Yorkers in the armed forces or who are institutionalized are not counted as residents. And 2) "A net loss of black residents, even between censuses, would apparently be the first since the Civil War. In 1863, after mobs attacked blacks during the draft riots, many fled New York City. 'By 1865,' Leslie M. Harris wrote in 'In the Shadow of Slavery,' the city's 'black population had plummeted to just under 10,000, its lowest since 1820.'"

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  • BoBo

    The black kids are cool!

  • King Kong

    HML and Suz, I don't have much time to reply now, but you bring up some interesting points. I don't fully agree, yet I understand your positions. A couple of things:

    Recent so-called "ghetto culture" in America actually does fit well with some of the modern views of Western materialism. In fact, it's like Western-style consumer materialism on steroids but without the essential vitamins. Think of the bastardization of hip hop into what it currently is, and tell me otherwise - regardless of the part of the country.

    Second, regarding immigrant groups...there are a few things that one must consider before making the sweeping statements. I'll list a few:

    Poverty in a developing nation is VASTLY different from poverty in the U.S. urban centers - this affects (I think) a family's determination for something better

    Many Blacks in America harbor a basic expectation that the "system" is unfair and aligned against them - some of this is unjustified, but much of it has basis in actual history. This affects a person's perceived view of what's important and what is attainable through education and hard work.

    "Desegregation" is reputed by some sociologists to have had a negative effect on the supporting social and cultural infrastructure in poor communities that are mostly Black.

    I'm not so sure that the stats for immigrant Latinos' lack of educational attainment are much different than some other immigrant communities - I think that a more rigorous body of research exists that may explain this via other factors than "a community doesn't want to change."

    Will write more when I have time...

  • suz

    HML---I agree with some of what you say and not with other points.

    I agree that northern public schools are poorly managed--and not for lack of money. But I disagree that immigrant children are severely disadvantaged.

    Immigrant children from Arab families, African families, Asian families, and Eastern European families often live in very humble circumstances but put a premium on education and achievement. So they start to move ahead after a generation. I think this is turning out to be relatively true for Brazilians as well.

    The ones that tend to lag are Hispanics from Mexico and the Caribbean. Like Black Americans, they come from a (sub)culture that does not value education.

    There are Black Americans who do value education, but statistically, they are not the majority.

    It's very hard to change a community that doesn't want to change.

  • HML

    My world view



    I don't believe that migration boils down to economics in the present century, although it plays a role in every decision. I think that people will give up working two or three jobs up North or out West to work one job in the south that pays far less than the three jobs together. Today, quality is more important than quantity. That is why many white people, in the last fes years, have been moving back to Brooklyn and other surrounding areas that they left and cutting their commute time down from hours to minutes. It is part economic but a large remainder is having more qaulity time to spend with thing that are important to them. You said that the American way is a product of the western world culture. I think that the ghetto exists not because the people have ignored the western world culture, but because they have been left behind. They are being ignored. At one time there was a philosophy that stated that "religion is the opiate of the people." Meaning that religion sedates them and keeps them from thinking beyond that issue. It seems that the sub culture or the "under class culture" has become the opiate that has sedated an entire population of people. It is systematic oppression. I don't believe that it is economic, but a deliberate political maneuver. Many of them do not realize how awful there situation is. I believe that it is a systematic attempt to keep a specific class of people in one place and out of commission. They are not just blacks. This is the only country that incarcerates a large number of people. The incarcerated just sit idol in prison. Then when they are allowed out of prison, without rehabilitation, some are made to pay a fine for a length of time in which they are on parole. They are usually unskilled people with no income. This is an oxymoron. Why are they not trained to work a job before coming out of prison. A large prison needs a least $10,000 per prisoner per month. This is backwards. They is not used to recondition them for society. That is stupid and does not come from Europe, western world. On another angle, I know of a women who lives in the projects; she has very little post high school education; she has worked the same job for over twenty years. Good for her. She has a good pension. She has two children and is divorced, her first dilemma. She lives in the ghetto/projects, and her youngest son is going to school, presently, to study in the Sciences. She also, has a daughter who has one child and no husband. Her daughter has just graduated with a masters degree from Elete university and a school of dentistry. Her daughter is on Well Fair and lives in the projects. Her daughter was on Well Fair before entering her second degree. She is going to over come and move off of Well Fair soon. She already has a job offer which will come after she takes the state board license. The problems with the existence of the culture in ghetto is not that they have ignored the Western World. The mother manages her money well. She has chosen to live in the projects over the years. She is one tough lady. She is moving to the south when she retires. She doesn't want to live in New York, she has out grown it. She doesn't want a lot of "bling bling." In fact she is very conservative. There others like her in the "ghetto." The Western World concept does not fit them. Like a pair of pants too small or too big. Integrated schools in the northern cities are still very poorly run. They are under staffed with an over whelming number of children. This is not economics. It is a lack gov.management. The money is there. The most dis-advantaged are the new immigrant children. Hispanic child have the highest drop out rate in New York City. Attention is spent on construction. More building. Look at he new "World Trade Center." That is going to cost a fortune. The new Yankee stadium is going to cost a double fortune. This is a materialistic mentality and some people believe that "less is more." Don't misunderstand. There are many wealthy African Americans who are extravagant and want to live where they can have more for less. But the majority of African Americans want a peaceful, quiet meaningful living existence with a few amenities on the side.



  • suz

    "Keeping up with a white society no longer means that much to them."

    This is really sad and I hope it's not true. Because it's not a white society. It's western culture and anyone who lives within it but rejects it is screwed. Which has essentially been the problem of ghetto culture for the last 40 years.

    A lot of middle class blacks have headed south to Atlanta etc because you get more bang for your buck, and it's a less taxing lifestyle...plus: Jim Crow is over and done with in a big way, so people are basically going back home. Blacks never really abandoned their southern ways.

    Poorer blacks are probably just taking a cue from more affluent blacks and heading south.

    But bottom line: Migration always boils down to economics. Always. Nothing new under the sun.

  • hml

    The most recent post by King Kong. "America has never fully dealt with DuBois' "problem of the Color Line," and with globalization concerning us all, we probably never will." I disagree. Globalization will force a white minority to deal with a "Color Line." Three qaurters of the world is not caucasian. The American white man/woman has taken on a different attitude towards different people, especially, people of color. Their attitude is generally a superior and inferior issue. A person can not have a closed mind in a global world. They will eventually deal with it on a global scale. Also, it may be that black people have moved to the south because they want a slower and more meaningful life style. Keeping up with a white society no longer means that much to them. Maybe seperate and equal is not a bad idea. (just theorizing a little) Seventy years ago, a "negro" family did not up and send a child off to college "up north" or anywhere else. The family went where the best opportunities were. Now, a family can live in the rural south. They can do what many foreign born people do. Go away and make money and then return to the place that feels like home. In the south a family can pay less money for a bigger house and send little "Shaquan" to college or let him finish up north or out west. I was speaking to a man of color the other day the who is about to retire. He is considered poor because of his income bracket. However, he has a pension and a life savings of $100,000. He remained in his City Jobs for years. Between he and his wife, the pension and SS will bring $8,000 per month. He is leaving New York when he retires. His children are staying. The south has a strong religious base, and always has. However most recently in the last two decades, mega churches have popped up. They are quite magnetic. Therefore, the south has not only a slower life style, but a cleaner moral traditional factor for living life. This would make the south a "quieter and gentler place." In cities the world is usually an "anything goes" mentality. And cities are so monopalized in an obvious way. The change in cities is to constant. Slow down and live a little. Just my opinion

  • King Kong

    The article did mention that many of the Blacks moving to the South tend to be of lower economic or educational attainment. I suppose one could contrast this with working class Whites who have elected to stay in the Region, although I've not seen percentage comparisons between the two groups. Assume that working class Whites have elected to stay in the region. The difference is easily explainable because of the Great Migration that occurred with many Blacks during the 40's and 50's, along with the already cited slowing of Black immigrants from the Caribbean.

    I say explainable since one would expect that many of the working class Whites are 2nd generation or more descendants of European immigrants or have moved from elsewhere in the region while many of the working class Blacks from NY are either recent immigrants from the Caribbean or have come from the South. Holding all else equal while accounting for the wage differences between Blacks and Whites as well as the timing of widespread access to housing ownership (redlining as a practice was ended probably in the 1970's or even '80's), it is not surprising that working class Blacks are leaving the region. This is obviously driven by the combination of widespread higher housing prices and continued cost of living increases at the top end and most likely, by the pressure on wages for "menial jobs" on the low end, coming from new immigrants.

    I guess the story here is, don't count on diversity in a place where the social and economic infrastructure won't provide meaningful support for varied races. America has never fully dealt with DuBois' "problem of the Color Line," and with globalization concerning us all, we probably never will.

  • Jay

    Drew,

    My belief is that issues of class and inequity is at the heart of the issue, or encompassing a significant chunk of it. It's not to say that I'm definitely sure, but if this is the case, I'm not sure how such hateful sentiments can be changed without first addressing the underlying problem.

    And Aliterator, why can't "gentrification" be possible without the yuppies and the hipsters that you speak of?

  • C

    karen: blacks want jobs?! hah! ok

    but maybe these people are moving to florida just to get florida plates for their cars...just like pennsylvania is seeming like the hot place to live now *rolls eyes*...

  • Karen

    Oh-and if the real estate in a lot of Florida is now higher than it was, say 5 years ago, the taxes are still a lot lower than NYS.

  • Karen

    Maybe blacks are moving to Florida, for the same reason people of all races are moving there from Western NY. JOBS!

  • ha

    don't move to florida. they won't let you vote.

  • Alliterator

    I for one welcome gentrification and if it takes Hipsters and Yuppies to further this cause then so be it.

    20 years ago New York was a hell hole, now look at it now!

    And this is coming from a Hispanic guy.

  • Teddy

    "when black people leave, Property prices go up. That's been the cardinal law of Real Estate for the last 200 years. It's taught to all Real Estate agents. sad but true"

    That's happening in New Orleans right now.

  • Drew

    Jay - Again, I agree with your economic analysis, no argument there.

    Whether or not one is shaken by hateful comments doesn't really matter. My wife didn't bat an eye either, but it's still hateful and racist. It's the speaker's attitude that counts, not the reaction. How far do you go in excusing behavior like that? You can always find some bullshit excuse for the way one acts, doesn't mean it's right, or understandable, or should be tolerated.

    We just have a minor disagreement here, I think you're right overall.

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