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We're in the middle of a cold snap, but meteorologists want us to freak out about the possibility of a New York hurricane this year. AccuWeather believes that New York City is overdue for a hurricane, given "current cycle of storms, pressure systems and above-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic." (The 1938 Hurricane just missed NYC, but hit Long Island, killing hundreds.) After Hurricane Katrina, Mayor Bloomberg said that Office of Emergency Management would be able to handle a hurricane, but the OEM is reviewing the plan from head to toe. You can see the OEM's hurricane and coastal storm information here and find out which evacuation zone you live in. Of course, areas that New Yorkers flock to on the shore, like the Hamptons and Fire Island are even more vulnerable. Gothamist thinks the only way to freak out is to demand the city explain what its plans are - we hope there are some town hall type community meetings planned.
The Weather Channel dramatized the possibility of a category 3 storm in NYC with the program It Could Happen Tomorrow; we interviewed Terry Connelly, the Weather Channel's general manager, and asked about it.
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This is just attempt to cause hysteria in the innumerate. Saying that NYC is due implies that regions which suffered a devastating storm would be in less danger. Last year's events say otherwise.
actually, it's not hysteria. see this article by arrogant but on-the-mark aaron naparstek:
http://www.nypress.com/print.cfm?content_id=13427
the nyc area gets slammed by a major hurricane typically every 70 years. the last "big one" was the one dubbed "the long island express," in 1938. we're due.
It's really worth it to find out if your workplace and home are in hurricane evacuation zones. It's no less crazy than knowing where the fire exit is in your building. And it's just as likely to save your life if worst comes to worst.
I mean no *more* crazy.
My point is that there is a chance for this type of devestating storm every year. Trying to say 2006 is somehow more susceptible is hogwash. How 'bout we perfect the five-day forecast first? I have yet to see one expert in these articles say it will definitely happen in 2006. Could it happen? Certainly. Will it happen? Who knows.
but history has shown a pretty steady every-70-year pattern. so it actually is more likely to happen in the next few years than, say, last year, or in the 90s. that's fact. my conjecture is that it's extra likely given global warming and the trend of increased hurricanes and tropical storms.
Harry,
This isn't a zero-sum game. Just because NYC is due to get hit doesn't mean some other region will be spared. For all you know, we could have a record hurricane season with more named storms than last year, so one heading further north won't make much difference to the south. And actually, as researchers have noted, record-breaking seasons are likely to be on tap given the global warming of the oceans, since warm waters are the engines driving hurricanes.
Accuweather is one of the worst private weather forecasting companies out there when it comes to 1) unscientific claims 2) media hype, and 3) self promotion. As Joe Bastard should know from basic statistics, such a statement as "is due for a major hurricane" is hogwash.
Brightliner: The fact that it is not zero-sum is exactly my point. Saying we're due for a major storm because it has been quiet for the last seventy years, however, is looking at it that way. The fact that storm classification and detection has changed dramatically over the period that these cycles have been identified calls into question the accuracy of the early data. Long before satellites, storms were reported when a ship spotted one.
I certainly think anyone who saw what happened on the Gulf Coast can appreciate the need for preparedness and precautions, there is no arguing that. But I think there is a danger in constantly playing the doomsday card which in my opinion is done more for notoriety than anything else. After a while people stop listening to any warnings and that is what leads to catastrophe.