Ken Reed, MD

Mon, 31 Oct 2005 00:41:18 -0500

I'm a physician practicing in Dallas. There are several problems with your analysis: 1. NOBODY has natural antibodies to Avian Flu. That is one of the reasons that makes it so dangerous. 2. This particularly strain of flu virus DOES NOT only cause serious morbidity/mortality amongst the age extremes or people weakened from some chronic illness; rather, it is an equal opportunity killer. In rough numbers - in the world, roughly sixty people have come down with this flu, and of these about thirty (50%) have died. In this group of thirty there are plenty of previously healthy young adults. No, notwithstanding the poorly referenced and completely irresponsible assertions made in this post, the reason that people are so concerned about this flu is that if it does mutate to a form that is spread peron-to-person, then it definitely will kill off millions of people around the world. Moreover, it will kill off millions of healthy young people in our own country. So, yes, there is absolutely a reason to be concerned about this potentiality. That is the reason that governments around the world are taking it so seriously. So, while your post was witty and read very well, it was the type of post that "sounds good when you say it quickly"; however, unfortunately, it does not square with reality in the least. There are other problems with this analysis, but I will leave it at answering just these two. In conclusion, while I do agree that there may be some argument about "hoarding" Tamiflu, there is NO argument about the potential devasting nature of this disease. I will end by stressing a salient point - this flu will just as easily kill previously healthy people (There is a pathophysiologic reason behind this relating to the nature of the damage. While most flu illnesses produce a bronchitis, this flu seems to produce a pneumonitis, which is much more deadly.)

John Sibley

Sun, 30 Oct 2005 18:26:08 -0500

The bird-flu/Tamiflu panic, by some remarkable coincidence, also serves to line the pockets of Donald Rumsfeld... Check it out.

Gothamist: Opinionist: Cuckoo's Nest

Ken Reed, MD

John Sibley