Welcome, Mr. Beltran...Savior of the Mets?

Carlos Beltran; Photo: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The Mets have finally signed a player in his prime. They have agreed to terms with Carlos Beltran, the gem of this off-season's free agent market. The contract is reportedly worth $119 million over 7-years, with a $11 million signing bonus and a no-trade clause. Beltran, a 27 year-old centerfielder who will be the new face of the franchise, is considered a five tool player by many and is the latest splash in a busy off season in Flushing.

Beltran and his agent, Scott Boras, were willing to give the Yankees a discount because Beltran preferred The Bronx. The Yankees, however, were unwilling to increase their already ballooning payroll after signing Randy Johnson to a contract extension. Boras reached out Saturday with a 6-year $100 million contract that would have resulted in an even larger luxury tax hit for the Yankees.

Whether that slight of the Mets will be an issue in the future remains to be seen, but the Mets certainly took a step in the right direction. Then again, with three horrible seasons in a row, they almost can't sink any further. So, what does this do for the Mets and their fans. Will they finally get out of the NL East cellar and possibly contend for the Wild Card or the NL East title? Or is this merely a step to get them above .500? Now, pass us our Carlos Beltran t-shirt jersey.

Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images via The NY Times

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By tien mao on January 10, 2005 9:45 AM

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rei

beltran is not overrated at all

u may think that he is just a one hit wonder in the play offs but he has put up consistant numbers in kansas city for a while. the reason why he seemed to have come from no where is because of the low profile of the kansas city royals. although any true baseball fan would no who he is.

Beltran is almost ideal, in the fact that he does every single fundamental of baseball well. he isnt a over powering hitter but he can do a semi powerful season from 28 to 30+. hes an extremely smart base runner. he hits the ball fairly well. and he is a pretty agile fielder.

that is all the making of a superior ball player even among that of the powerful albert pujols. albert is probably the best hitter ive ever seen. but i dont think he nos what position hes supposed to play, and he isnt the fastest baserunner. but he is like a god at what he does.

it was a good idea getting beltran now especially cuz hes young and going through his prime

alizinha

whatever, he's HOTT.

KeithS

To continue that thought, one of the many interesting things about the reception Moneyball has received is how, while it's been quite widely read, it's also been quite widely misinterpreted.

Many readers finish the book believing that a certain kind of player, one who draws walks, strikes out a lot, and is poor on defense is what have made the A's successful, when in fact, it's been the exploitation of market inefficiencies that's been paramount to Beane's success. It's just that the sort of players described in Moneyball are the players who the market was undervaluing during the period during which the book was written. As other GMs catch on to these lessons, market inefficiencies will drift toward other baseball skill sets. The best example I can think of for this drift is Mark Kotsay Beane traded for just about a year ago. While nothing in his OPS was particularly inspiring, he's a phenomenal defensive center fielder, and just the sort of "toolsy" player often maligned in Moneyball. He also happened to have a career year and was a big part of what success the Athletics achieved in 2004.

It reminds me very much of Sinclair's 'The Jungle', and his famous "aiming for the heart and hitting the stomach" quip. Sinclair was hoping to illustrate that capitalism was a dehumanizing force and that it made sense to give socialism a whirl. What the reading public learned was "Ew, meat is really gross."

KeithS

The Moneyball side of you should perhaps also recognize that while the quantity of stolen bases is often overated, anyone who has a career success rate of 89% (including 28 for 28 in 2003 and 42 for 45 this year) is doing a great deal to help their team put runs on the board.

zander106

The Moneyball side of me wants to say, "Stolen bases, who cares?" But of course the Red Sox Fan side of me says, "Remember Dave Roberts's Game 4 SB against Rivera?" So, good points all. Of course, I still think he's overpaid, but then again, who isn't?

KeithS

"His contract is bigger than that of Albert Pujols, easily the best hitter in all of baseball not named Barry Bonds."

Big difference -- Beltran was a free agent, while Pujols signed a contract extension that covered some of his arbitration-eligible years and a few of his free agency years.

Most free agent contracts do carry something of the "winner's curse" which applies to most free market bidding. That said, one should also take into account that Beltran is the most successful base-stealer of all time (in terms of caught-stealing percentage), and that he's an elite defender at one of the most important defensive positions on the diamond.

tien

from the ny times last week:

"Beltran is the only player in baseball history with four consecutive seasons of 20 homers, 100 runs, 100 runs batted in and 30 stolen bases."

not that the stat above refutes your points. i'm just saying...

zander106

OK, while I grant that Beltran had a spectacular run during the playoffs last year, he seems to be just as spectacularly overpaid. Over $100 million for a guy who has a career .284 batting average and only once (last year) hit over 30 HR? He does appear to be a regular 100-RBI producer, but his contract is bigger than that of Albert Pujols, easily the best hitter in all of baseball not named Barry Bonds. Somehow I think Omar Minaya will be less celebrated in Queens when we're still seeing a sub-.500 Mets team miss the playoffs again. How about spending $119 million over the next 7 years developing your farm system?