Ivan, Category 5. Jamaica, Florida Getting Ready

Cat 5 Ivan, 5 day computer models

Ivan reached Category 5 early this morning with winds of 160mph and gusts even stronger. It ripped through Grenada destroying 90% of the homes there and tearing open a prison allowing convicts to escape. Next in its path in Jamaica where the country has issued a hurricane warning. In the US, officials have ordered the complete evacuation of the Florida Keys as 5-day computer models of Ivan's path has it zeroed in on southern Florida.

We seriously hope those models are wrong. Of all the storm activity that Florida has endured recently, this one looks like the nastiest. While Ivan is one of the strongest storms in the Carribean in over 10 years, it is also worth noting that Category 5 storms tend not to sustain their intensity for long periods of time. The longest living Cat 5 in the Atlantic was 3 days. That fact may be of little comfort to the residents of Florida and definitely worthless to Jamaica.

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No way the models are wrong. Some part of Florida is going to be hit. But after crossing Cuba, and perhaps encountering some sheer, Ivan will not be as strong. Frances was more threatening, until it hit sheer and weakened offshore. The worst-case scenario for S. Florida is a west-running hurricane off the open Atlantic, like Andrew.

So if these models are right, what are the chances that it's going to come up the coast and boink us like Frances did this week? And, importantly, when? (I've got an outdoor wedding to go to next weekend.)

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